Crisis? What crisis?

What does it take?
Fecha: 2006-02-01 00:00:00por: Rami Schwartz (Editorial) (rami@mexico.com)

What does it take for Mexicans to realize the mess they’re in?. There is a dangerous tendency towards ignoring all hard evidence that shows Mexico is sinking. On the contrary, politicians of all colors and flavors keep thinking that Mexico does have some problems but that in no way they question the country’s viability. Crisis?. What Crisis? That seems to be the motto of our ruling class.

Bodies are piling up at a rate of a dozen a day. Every morning we open the newspapers and find out about murders and executions in every state and city of the country. Sinaloa, Monterrey, Sonora, Tijuana, Nuevo Laredo, Ciudad Juarez, Michoacán, Acapulco, Mexico City… Yet, the federal government as well as the local and state authorities keep denying the obvious, that Mexico has reached plateaus of violence that resemble Colombia in the 90’s. More people die in Mexico victim of gang wars than in Irak victim of the war and terrorist attacks. What does it take?

Mexico has become the major exporter of poverty in the world. Mexico expels over half a million Mexicans every year to the United States and Mexicans have become the major group of refugees in the entire world. More people are fleeing Mexico’s corruption and its politicians than those who escaped communism. Yet, Mexico’s ruling class fails to take the appropriate measures and public policies to stop this exodus. What does it take?

Mexico’s companies are closing at a rate of a dozen a day and employment in industries like manufacturing, retail, wholesale and construction keep falling. In manufacturing, employment has fallen for 60 consecutive months and 2 in every 10 manufacturing jobs have been lost in the past five years. In wholesale and retail 6 out of every 10 jobs have been lost in the same period and in construction 2 in every 10. Unemployment is now well over 50% of the workforce, yet our politicians keep saying the economy is solid. What does it take?.

Mexico’s streets are one huge flea market where everything goes and everything sales. Child pornography, contraband, piracy, drugs, prostitution, stolen and hot goods, endangered species, etc., There are entire areas where it’s impossible to buy a legitimate product. Even products that seem legitimate are not, a can of coke may very well be stolen, a pack of Marlboro’s may very well be forfeited, chances are a bottle of whiskey may be contraband. Almost 50% of Mexico’s work force is pedaling the streets and at the same time, established businesses close because they can’t compete against the illegal. Yet the authorities keep saying unemployment in Mexico is less than 3% of the workforce.

Mexico used to produce and export foodstuffs, now it imports everything it consumes. It imports gasoline despite being an oil producing country, it is the biggest importer of milk, corn and wheat in the world, México used to be the largest exporter of honey and sugar, now it imports high fructose corn syrup like no other country in the world. Mexico is probably the most dependent country in the world and production in Mexico keeps falling at alarming rates. What does it take?

For five years in a row Mexico has fallen in every major international index. We have fallen in competition, education, adoption of technologies, economic freedom and good government practices among others. Mexico is fading as a destination for investors despite Nafta and all the commercial treaties the country has signed in the past decade. China is now the largest trading partner of the United States, a position Mexico held for many years. But Mexico will keep falling; pretty soon India and Japan will surpass Mexico who will fall to 4th or maybe even 5th. Again, what does it take?

On the other side of the coin, Mexico has been climbing positions in all major faulty indicators. It has more billionaires per capita than any other country in the world, those billionaires control more wealth than any other country in the world. Mexico holds the number one position in kidnappings, Mexico’s drug cartels are the most dangerous in the world, teenage pregnancy is reaching African levels, the growth in drug consumption is the highest of any country in the world. What does it take?

No country in the world has depleted more their natural resources than Mexico. Over 75% of Mexico’s forests and jungles are gone, over 75% of Mexico’s bodies of water are polluted beyond solution, over 75% of Mexico’s animal and plant species are on the verge of extinction, over 75% of Mexico’s beaches are polluted and full of trash. Yet, no presidential candidate has even spoken about the environment and presidential campaigns are well under way. What does it take?

Political participation in electoral processes has been steadily falling for the past 20 years. Nowadays, less than 40% of the voters vote. The rest stay home and watch soccer matches on TV. Mexicans are loosing interest in politics and the faith of the country and according to my calculations and the historic tendencies, this year’s presidential election will have the lowest turnout of any presidential election in the history of the country. Apathy is now Mexico’s leading political force. What does it take?

We could spend hours and waste tons of ink and paper describing figures like the above. The scenario is such that any rational human being can’t help to reach the obvious conclusion, Mexico is on the verge of a major collapse. Optimists may conclude that the imminent collapse will happen in a few years, pessimists, like myself, may conclude that we are already in the toboggan. But denying that Mexico is in a deep, deep crisis is a futile exercise of schizophrenia that can only lead to a deeper and faster freefall and ultimately to disaster. Unfortunately, all of Mexico’s ruling class is schizophrenic, they live in a different reality, they fail to see the obvious, that Mexico is loosing viability fast.

Therefore the question remains, what does it take?. Bodies piled by the hundred’s?, half of Mexico’s population living abroad as economic refugees?, the complete disappearance of Mexico’s industry?, a 20% turnout to the elections?, the disappearance of all the forests, jungles and animal species?, falling to sub-Saharan levels in all major indicators of well being?. It is said that the worst blind is that who fails to see, the worst deaf is that who fails to hear and that nothing is as dangerous as a stupid who believes he is smart and who has decision making power. I am afraid Mexico’s ruling class is the worst class of blind and deaf because they fail to see and hear the obvious, on the contrary, they insist that “there is no other country like Mexico”. That is the road to perdition. Their motto seems to be Crisis? What Crisis?

I conclude by posing again the question… What does it take?, What kind of evidence do they want that we are on a Great Depression?


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Fecha: 2006-02-01 00:00:00por: Rami Schwartz (Editorial) (rami@mexico.com)